ABSTRACTExchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another currency.Exchange rate stability has to do with government actions in order tostabilize exchange rate so as to increase export in Nigeria especially exportof primary products (agricultural produce) over the years, Nigeria hasadopted various exchange rate regimes ranging from fixed exchange regimeto floating exchange regime. The main purpose of this work is to determineto what extend does the volatility and risks of exchange rate affect exports ofagricultural produce in Nigeria. To do this, the classical Linear RegressionModel is applied and the ordinary least square econometric technique is alsoused to estimate the impact of exchange rate on agricultural export tradeearning. The variables used are export trade earnings as the dependentvariable and exchange rate, interest rate, inflation and agricultural out put asthe independent variables. Economic test shows the piori criteria of theparameters used to determine if it conforms to the economic theory. Thestatistical criteria employed are the F – test, the T – test and R2which teststhe significance of the parameters. The econometric criteria (second ordertest) used are the Durbin Watson test, which tests for the auto correlationand the randomness of the residuals. The Jarqu-Bera criteria is used to testfor normality of the residuals. From the analysis of the result, it shows thatthere is a relationship export performance of agricultural product and realexchange rate stability in Nigeria. Exchange rate stability has a positive andsignificant effect on agricultural export. An increase in exchange ratestability raises the marginal utility of export revenue and therefore inducesthem to increase exports.
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